Here is a continuation on the “I am going to wait to buy” scenario I wrote about last month.  It’s all about supply and demand.  I won’t bore you with the population numbers I did last month, but here are the NJ specific supply numbers.  The most recent inventory numbers show NJ has 56.4% LESS homes for sale in December of 2025 than it did in December of 2019.   Let’s put that into perspective: If a town had 100 homes on the market in 2019 there are only 44 homes listed today.  See the chart below for the specifics along with the top 10 states with more inventory and the top 10 with less inventory.  NJ is third for LOW inventory.  With interest rates currently at some multi-year lows and likely to continue to fall we will see more buyers come into the market because 1) more buyers will ... 01/19/2026

 How many times have you heard a potential buyer say: “I am going to wait for prices to come down.”?What is your response?  Here is some real data you can share with pretty charts and all.(My Focus here is for New Jersey since that is where I am located, but it will apply to many other states as well)Inventory- That is the true problem we continue to experience.  While inventory has been climbing it is still a fraction of the inventory we had prior to the pandemic.  Additionally, we have way more people in NJ now.  That lack of inventory and increase in population has driven a textbook Supply and Demand scenario. More buyers than the available inventory drives prices up and with the three-month running average of Mortgage rates currently at a 3-year low that will only serve to drive mor... 12/19/2025

Thinking of buying or selling a home in the Ocean Acres community of Stafford Township Manahawkin NJ 08050?Can you think of more pros of living in Ocean Acres? Text me your pro opinion.Contact Broker Associate Charlene Capici with Homesmart First Advantage Realty 609-312-6625. 12/17/2025

November 2025 Ocean County NJ Real Estate Market Update750 Homes SoldAverage days on market: 48Total active listings: 968$670,377 average list price For a personalized real estate review of your property contact Charlene Capici, Broker Associate Homesmart First Advantage Realty at 609-312-6625 12/17/2025

Just Sold on Long Beach Island NJ in Ship Bottom Ocean County.  First Floor restaurant mixed use with second floor apartment.We have more buyers looking for mixed use sales and rentals on Long Beach Island please text or call Charlene Capici, Broker Associate Homesmart First Advantage Realty Long Beach Township, NJ Long Beach Island 609-312-6625 if you are thinking of selling or buying! 12/17/2025

 The Fed lowers rates…… BUT Rates are up??  Yes, that is the case, and it is not as unusual as some have been making it seem.  Keep in mind how rates move.  Investors buy and sell bonds and mortgages in the secondary market just like stocks and bonds.  Investors are basically a bunch of gamblers that are buying based on what they think is going to happen…. All that improvement we saw in rates over the past month or so was based on the anticipated Fed move, buying ahead of the news, driving the price up and the yield down.  So as soon as the Fed lowered rates, we did see the market begin to sell off.  Wall Street buys the rumor and sells the fact…. Effectively: Profit taking.  This profit taking stepped up a little more than usual during the Fed Comments after the meeting starting when P... 10/30/2025

 Federal Shutdown, what does it mean?  The federal government shutdown is already affecting key parts of the housing market – and if you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, here’s what you need to know.Several government-backed programs are facing delays or suspensions: USDA rural home loans are currently paused. If there has not been a conditional commitment issued by the USDA already these loans WILL be delayed until after the shutdown is over.  FHA and VA loans are still being processed, but reduced staffing could slow down approvals and appraisals. (I don't anticipate any noticeable delays for the typical FHA/VA loan, the issue may come if there is a condo approval or something out of the ordinary that would require answers from either as the field offices and Hud Headquarters will ... 10/08/2025

 It certainly looks like it!you actually have to look back to September of 2024 to find a lower rate than we have today and that was very temporary since we saw rates bounce right back up last year as the Fed began easing rates but inflation put some fear in the markets.Forecasts were looking for rates to drop into the low 6s by the end of 2025 and it is looking like the prognosticators might be right.  August was a good month for rates as we saw some significant improvement after the Employment report was released.  The past few weeks we have been stuck in a tight range but the market keeps testing resistance levels in the credit markets and if tomorrow's BLS Employment report doesn't surprise the market with an unexpectedly strong number we appear to be poised for a nice improvement i... 09/04/2025

While national inventory numbers are showing a 25% year over year increase the real numbers are very different when you drill down to the individual states.  Looking at the Map below you can see the true inventory differences from pre pandemic to today.. Well not today, but as of July 2025...The states in BLUE are showing inventory is at least 40% below where it was in 2019, the dark green between 20-40% lower... it is really only the states in red that have more inventory now than pre pandemic.  As rates drop I expect we will see even more upward pressure on home prices ESPECIALLY in the states coded in Blue or Green.Yes- it is a good time to buy! Since 1987…. Helping your clients finance their piece of the American Dream. Do you have anyone you would like me to call? If you are intere... 08/07/2025

 Inventory: The Latest inventory figures are in UP 29% since last year… BUT…….  That is up from abysmal levels. The chart below shows the national numbers since January 2017. You can see that active listings were averaging well over 1.2m for years and the big drop started in 2019, well before the pandemic.  This was spurred on by First time buyers, Millennials reaching “that” age to buy a home.  First time buyers have been the driving force for years in this market and they remove inventory without replacing it causing even more pressure on inventory. So inventory is up, but it is still 11% lower than it was in 2019 and there are 12 million more people in the country since 2019 as well.  All supportive of home values.    I also love the quote I dropped in the chart from NAR’s Chief Econ... 07/23/2025

THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL POST!!So you have probably heard the OBBBA was passed and you may be interested to hear there are some great pieces to help support Real Estate and Homeownership.1) SALT: A few years ago when Federal Tax laws changed it limited State and Local Taxes as a write off to a measly $10,000. In higher tax area's that severely limited the taxes that homeowners could write off. The SALT limit has been temporally increased from $10,000 to $40,000 until 2029 adding back tax deductibility that many of us lost.2) PMI as a write off:  The Mortgage insurance write off is now permanent. So if you will be confident in knowing that you will not lose that write off if you are eligible. This reduces the effective cost of MI for low down payment loans.3) Mortgage Interest Deduction: ... 07/07/2025

Long Beach Island (LBI) in New Jersey has become a prime destination for vacationers, investors, and potential homeowners alike. Located just off the Garden State Parkway, this 18-mile barrier island offers the perfect combination of scenic beauty, charming communities, and family-friendly activities. Whether you're here for a weekend getaway or considering investing in the area, one thing is clear: Long Beach Island is a great place to be. One of the most important things to consider when visiting LBI is where to stay. As a local realtor, I’ve had the opportunity to tour the area extensively, and I’m here to give you a guide to the top hotels on Long Beach Island, NJ.1. The Surf City HotelLocated in the heart of Surf City, the Surf City Hotel offers a blend of classic beach charm and m... 04/21/2025

A Premier Destination for Golf Enthusiasts and Home BuyersWhen it comes to coastal living combined with world-class recreational opportunities, Long Beach Island (LBI) is a standout destination for home buyers. Among the many attractions that make LBI a sought-after location is its access to excellent golf courses, including the prestigious LBI National Golf Club. This blog post will shine a spotlight on the LBI National, a renowned golfing gem that offers more than just an exceptional experience for golfers—it’s also an important factor for those considering making LBI their home.Why LBI National Golf Club is a Premier Destination for Golf LoversLocated in the heart of Long Beach Island, LBI National is not only a place for locals to enjoy their passion for golf, but it also draws visi... 04/21/2025

Your Guide to LBI Hotels for a Perfect StayLong Beach Island (LBI) is one of New Jersey’s most beloved beach destinations, attracting visitors from all over the country. Whether you're here to enjoy a weekend getaway, explore potential investment opportunities, or get a feel for the community as you consider buying or selling a home, LBI has something for everyone. As a local realtor with in-depth knowledge of the area, I often recommend these great LBI hotels for those planning to stay and experience all the island has to offer.1. The Islander Motel: A Classic LBI ExperienceLocated in Beach Haven, The Islander Motel offers a relaxed, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to the beach, restaurants, and shops. This budget-friendly gem is a favorite among both first-time visit... 04/21/2025

I don't know about you, but I get entirely too many garbage phone calls and anything that I can do to eliminate them is welcomed! (because cursing at a computer generated voice has not been effective.)A problem in the Mortgage World is Trigger leads.  When we run a full credit report the credit bureaus sell your information and let others know you are shopping for a loan.  The calls happen almost immediately and often the perpetrators insinuate that they are calling from the organization that you authorized to run the credit: (In my case CMG)While I am all for honest people trying to make a living, it is the under handed sales tactics like I mentioned above that are misleading and should be illegal. First off: if you get calls like this, hang up and call the original person you spoke wi... 04/17/2025

The Top Beachfront Hotels in Long Beach Island, NJAs a local real estate professional specializing in Long Beach Island (LBI), NJ, I often work with buyers and sellers drawn to the island's stunning beaches, charming communities, and vibrant coastal lifestyle. Whether you're considering investing in LBI real estate or simply looking for a relaxing stay, knowing the best beachfront hotels can enhance your experience and offer a glimpse into what life on the island has to offer. Here are the top five hotels in LBI, NJ, for a waterfront retreat. 1. The Seashell Beach ResortLocated in Beach Haven, The Seashell Beach Resort is a premier oceanfront destination known for its upscale yet relaxed atmosphere. With direct beach access, an outdoor tiki bar, and a heated pool, this resort delivers a... 03/10/2025

Access to exceptional golf courses is a significant perk for golf enthusiasts considering a move to Long Beach Island (LBI) or its surrounding areas. Whether you’re looking for a challenging links-style experience or a picturesque course with rolling fairways, the region surrounding LBI offers a variety of top-tier golf destinations. Below, we highlight some of the best golf courses near LBI, NJ, each offering unique layouts and outstanding amenities. 1. LBI National Golf & ResortLocation: Little Egg Harbor, NJFormerly known as Sea Oaks Golf Club, LBI National Golf & Resort is undergoing significant upgrades under new ownership, making it a premier golf destination near LBI. This course offers a blend of wooded and open fairways, providing a challenging yet scenic experience. With plans... 03/10/2025

I saw a survey on social media the other day and saw this question...Why haven't you purchased a home?One of the top answers: "I don't know where to start."I assume there are many potential buyers out there that just don't know where or how to start.  Here is my answer (and it is going to sound a little self serving...):Your best place to start your home buying journey is with a local licensed mortgage lender like myself.  Even if you aren't ready to buy immediately you should have the finance conversation early on in the process to be sure you are doing the right things now that will not hurt your chances of getting approved.It's usually a pretty simple conversation about income, assets, credit and work history. It will also include your financial goals and most importantly your comfor... 02/20/2025

 If you follow me on social media at all you know I love a good graph.Here's a great one to show the potential appreciation in Toms River, NJ.  Most of Ocean County has very similar numbers for appreciation, I just chose 08753 because it is where my office is located.The above is assuming you purchase a $500,000 home today and put 5% down with $10k closing costs- it shows a few things:1) annual appreciation based on forecast and historical numbers2) ROI.  with 5% down and $10k closing costs this is based on $35k invested.3) You regain the entire 35k investment in less than 2 years.4)Don't Wait, BUY a home and build wealth.If you are interested in following me on social media, I am on just about every platform as @RobRauf or @RobertRaufIf you are looking to purchase or refinance a home i... 02/05/2025

 Would you have difficulty saving $1,600/month? Here's a pretty easy way to make it happen:  Buy a House!Seriously... here's the numbers:If you were to buy a $500,000 home in Ocean County NJ the Forecasted appreciation is 4.348% in most towns and the historical appreciation is 4.279%.  If we round that down to 4% appreciation in 2025 a $500,000 home today would be worth $520,000 in 12 months.  That $20,000 appreciation monthly is $1,667.Now if we assume you put 5% down when purchasing the home you would be approaching $5,000 in principal paid in the first 12 months as well, so lets call that $400/month.  Now that $500,000 is earning you $2,000/month all while you are enjoying it and most importantly paying your own mortgage.... NOT your landlords.If you think these numbers are contrived... 01/28/2025