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By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 0
Time it will take for Inventory to be “sold” or absorbed in the market One question I get asked is how the market is doing. There are many ways to answer the question, yet I believe one the best is looking at absorption of the inventory by the market and the relation of pending sales to the active inventory.So first let’s look inventory and the rate at current levels of sales how long the market will take to absorb or “buy the inventory”. As of this morning June 20th 2016 there are 550 “homes” on the market (the first column). I believe the best way determine how long the market will take to “buy the inventory” is go back and see by pending date how far back it took to find that many closed transaction. As of this morning I had to go back 149 days (fifth column) or basically 5 months to...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 1
Market update full report  Market update at glanceMay 31th 2016“HOW’S THE TRAFFIC” (Again)Thought I would use an analogy to try and capture the market this month.Imagine we are going on trip so volume of traffic and  speed limit becomes important to us.So to indicate the speed limit on or imaginary road I would us the percentage of pending to actives. As of the end of May the “speed limit”  was  71% meaning that if there were a 1,000 active properties we expect 710 pending sales (in 2015 the “speed limit” was 75% ). The next issue on road trip is how much traffic is there on the road or pending sales, at the end of May there were  465 pending sales or homes under contract moving down our road to closing , that means there is 8% more traffic (pending sales) than last year when there were...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 2
Was just looking at the median price of new homes in the united states, in April of 2006 the median price was $257,000 Freddie mac commitment for a 30 year loan was 6.51% making a 100% financed home with 26% for taxes and insurance cost of $2048.89 per month. Move forward to 2016 April the median price was $321,100 Freddie mac commitment for a 30 year loan was 3.60% making a 100% financed home with 26% for taxes and insurance cost of $1839.41 per month or an ownership cost 10.22% below 2006.Through the end of April 2006 in the united states 385,000 had been sold, through April 2016  a total of 196,000 new homes had be sold or 45.25% fewer homesIn April of 2006 there were 136,140,000 nonfarm employees, move forward to April of 2016 there are 144,592,000 nonfarm employees, an increase of ...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 0
Market update full Article  MARCH 31st 2016 “FIGURES NEVER LIE, YET LIARS FIGURE. WHERE’S THE MARKET 2016”March’s market update starts with “SO WHAT’S THE REAL DIRECTION OF THE MARKET”.One thing I have learned about watching the market and helping clients and customers make good decisions about real estate buying and selling: first and foremost put together the most accurate and representative information I can find. Having do this for 30 plus years I know if I want no matter how the market is performing I can slant the information either in a positive or negative light. As an example one measurement of the market place is the percentage of pending sales to active listings, basically velocity,  currently 74% (meaning you would expect 740 pending sales per 1000 active properties for sale...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 2
 Read full article here FEBRUARY 29Th 2016 “READY SET, WHOA OR GO!!, LOOKING AT 2016”February’s market update starts with “Let’s think different and ask different questions”.I believe it has been awhile since I addressed the issue of what I try to achieve with the information I collect and distribute.  The first issue is to understand that essentially all the “numbers” I put together, in reality, are indexes of activity in the market place. Why may you ask is that important, while it is true I strive to create an accurate representation, in the end though, it is still a partial representation of the market place, since having “all” the information is impossible. Hence individuals may say well that’s not quite true and in reality they are to some degree correct.  I have a quote that I li...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 1
 LInk to full article market update january 2016Market update at glanceJANUARY 31ST 201 “READY SET GO!!, LOOKING AT 2016 ”January’s market update starts with “THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND BUSINESS”.The end of JANUARY 2016 numbers, closed sales up +17%, pending sales up +1 %, inventory  up +12%, and interest rates up +5% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines did end in December and did not continued this month (JANUARY). My prediction, all things being equally, rates should be marginally higher in 2016 than 2015. Yet the wild card is the international markets where several central banks are forcing negative interest rate (banks charge to hold your money) if that becomes wide spread, should force money to flow towards the United states capital ...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 1
Link to complete article Market-update-at-glance-December-2015 DECEMBER 31ST 2015 “LOOKING BACK, end of the year 2015 report”December’s market update starts with “THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND BUSINESS”.The end of DECEMBER 2015 numbers, closed sales up +5%, pending sales up +21 %, inventory  up +1%, and interest rates up +3% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines will end this month (December) would be my prediction, which is what happened. All things being equally, rates should be marginally higher in 2016 than 2015.As of the end of the week of January 8th the rig count in North Dakota is down -119 rigs since last year, 49 working in 2016 and 168 working in 2015. The week January 11th 2015 in Montana 10 rigs were working there are ZERO rigs th...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 0
Want to wish all of you a Happy and prosperous new year in 2016!! Without You, My clients, Customers and Friends I would have no success. So I thank you all for a great 2015 and look forward to serving you in 2016 Enjoy ringing the new year !!  
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 1
 NOVEMBER 30th 2015 “HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY AND MERRY CHRISTMAS”November’s market update starts with “THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND BUSINESS”.The end of NOVEMBER 2015 numbers, closed sales up +5%, pending sales up +27 %, inventory down    -1%, and interest rates down -3% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines will end this next month (November) would be my prediction (I WAS WRONG IN OCTOBER).As of the end of the week of December 11th the rig count in North Dakota is down -121 rigs since last year, 58 working in 2015 and 179 working in 2014. The week December 11th 2014 in Montana 9 rigs were working there are ZERO rigs this year. So far the Million dollar question for 2015 “Will the decline in energy costs and interest rates offset any possible de...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 1
TO READ AT MY WEB SITEhttp://www.realestatemontana.com/blog/Market-update-at-glance-OCTOBER-2015 Market update at glanceOctober 30th 2015 “10 months down, 2 months to go”October’s market update starts with “oh my god where has the year gone”.The end of October 2015 numbers, closed sales up +6%, pending sales up +14 %, inventory down -6%, and interest rates down -6% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines will end this next month (November) would be my prediction.As of the end of the week of November 6th the rig count in North Dakota is down -118 rigs since last year, 63 working in 2015 and 181 working in 2014. So far the Million dollar question for 2015 “Will the decline in energy costs and interest rates offset any possible decline in business and jobs...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 1
Market update at glanceSeptember 30th 2015 “History and Fall, a couple favorites of mine”September’s market update starts with discussion Historical perspective. Those that have read these report for a while know that the high point in activity for residential sales was 2006, in that year there was 2043 “home sales” in Yellowstone county, there was 551 single family living units (single family plus duplex) created by permits taken out in the city of Billings. Average sales price was $191,850; 30 year fixed rate was 6.41%, making the PITI payment $1,531 dollars per month. Fast forward to this year 2015 residential sales so far 1461,projecting out to December 31st probably 1884 units sold so most likely -7.75% below 2006. So far there have 342 single family living units created by permits...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 0
August 31ST 2015  “END OF SUMMER BEGINNING OF SCHOOL” What has the summer taught about the market?   Just really going to let the numbers and charts speak for themselves this month. if you have any question please call or email Market update at glance   Year  Percentage Increase  Yellowstone County   08/31/2015   2014 2015 or -Decrease all information comparing year to date         Residential  Closed Sales Units   1439 1539 7%                   Residential  Pending Sales Units   359 410 14%                   Residential  Active Property For Sale 691 621 -10%                   Average sales price Single family Home $243,319 $250,184 3%                   Average Square feet Single family Home 2423 2397 -1%                   Median sales price Single family Home  $220,000 $225,903 3%    ...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 3
Through the looking glass - Alice in the wonderland of HousingWhat follow is an analysis of Yellowstone County and the housing market to see if we can discern where it might head over the next couple of years by understanding income and household growth to see if we are in “balance” or has there been more housing produced than what is needed by growth or has pricing outpaced income.Two things that are important to know 2006 was the year in which the greatest number of residential properties were sold in the mls and 2013 was the (I think) the bottom of the interest rate cycle. Another important piece of information to know, 2013 is the most current year for income data form the census bureau, actually the information comes from IRS tax returns filed in Yellowstone County, so in theory, t...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 2
“DOG DAYS OF SUMMER”In recognition of the time of year this written report is much shorterAt the end of July 2015, closed sales are  up +8%, pending sales up +13 %, inventory down -11%, and interest rates down -2% from the year earlier. As of the end of the week of August 7th the rig count in North Dakota is down -111 rigs since last year,     71 working in 2015 and 182 working in 2014.  Let’s look at closed transactions, Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County,  1310  through July 2015 as compared to 1212 in July 2014 showing an increase in closed transactions of +98, which translates into a +8% increase year over year. Residential pending unit sales in 2015 are up +13% year over year (420 units pending).  To compare; 2014 July pending unit sales (3371 units pending)Interest rates...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 3
http://www.realestatemontana.com/Blog/comparing-2006-to-2015-real-estate-market-Yellowstone-County  Time to look back and see where the market has traveled. I use 2006 as a base year for comparison to 2015 since 2006 is the peak year in terms of number of sales in Yellowstone County. The residential market has yet to surpass the number units sold 2006 even though Yellowstone County has more jobs, income and lower interest rates. So let’s take a look back    First here is a quick glance at comparisons When we take a quick look at the drivers of housing, population, employment and income, they all look healthy and in the positive, with the average wage in Yellowstone County showing a stellar performance. When you add in that the interest rate is almost 38% lower than 2006 (6.41% 2006 vs. ...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 0
 direct link to total bloghttp://www.realestatemontana.com/Blog June 30th 2015 “Perception Working Reality”When I moved to Montana 43 years ago, one of the things I found fascinating  was perception of temperature, you go through a week of -10 to -20 below zero, then it “warms” to 20 above and the perception changes, that it is warm, you see people not wearing coats  and behavior changes. This month’s update starts with discussion of a perception.  This year market the velocity has been quick. One of my thumb nails of the market strength, is the percentage of pending sales to active listings, that ratio hit 84% in the beginning of May (the highest it has been was the beginning of July 2003, it hit 88%) as I write on July 9th the ratio has fallen to 66%, an initial reaction might be, oh ...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 0
http://www.realestatemontana.com/Blog/Market-Update-at-glance-May-2015 “Inventory Shortage and other Myths” Mays market update starts with discussion of a comment both locally and nationally that there is a “shortage “of inventory.  Actually though when you look at activity in the market place it says something quite different. First let’s define inventory, my belief is you can look at one of two ways, one would be the “active homes for sale only” or when trying to understand the market in total, inventory includes “active pending and closed” (this represents total inventory activity). When looking at the only “active” you would say yes, inventory is down, May 2014  622 active units May 2015 573 active units seems pretty simple to say yes there is an inventory shortage.  Yet when we loo...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 2
http://www.realestatemontana.com/blog/Market-update-at-glance-april-2015 April 30th 2015  “Spring has sprung and the sprung has the market Jumping” April’s market update starts with a saying I believe most would be familiar, about flowers coming to bloom as sign of renewal and growth.  Actually though April is a continuation of “March Madness”  activity since weather warmed and interest rates dropped in 2015 Market.  At the end of April 2015, closed sales up +12%, pending sales up +10 %, inventory down    -10%, and interest rates down-15% from the year earlier. As of the end of the week of May 1st the rig count in North Dakota is down -97 rigs since last year,     79 working in 2015 and 176 working in 2014. So the Million dollar question for 2015 remains the same “Will the decline in en...
By Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!
(Howard Sumner Consulting)
Comments 0
   March 31th 2015  “Oh what difference weather and interest rate makes, within the market place” I think I will start March’s market update with an analogy to the college basketball events that occur every year and that is “March Madness” only we do not end up with a final four. I do think “March Madness” best describes the activity since weather warmed and interest rates dropped in 2015 Market.  At the end of March 2015, closed sales up +5%, pending sales up +33 %, inventory down    -11%, and interest rates down-13% from the year earlier.  As of the end of the week of April 3th the rig count in North Dakota is down 88 rigs since last year 90 in 2015 and 178 working in 2014. So the Million dollar question for 2015 remains the same “Will the decline in energy costs and interest rates of...

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