THIS TIME OF YEAR I START ASKING MYSELF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MARKET PLACE AND THE ANSWERS I ALWAYS FIND INTERESTING   NEW CONSTRUCTION IN BILLINGS AREA   WHEN LOOKING HOW WELL OR POOR WE ARE DOING THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO LOOK AT THE SEGMENT.   #1 COMPARING NUMBER OF SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS ISSUES   #2 COMPARING SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS PLUS DUPLEX PERMITS MULTIPLIED BY 2 FOR LIVING UNITS   #3 COMPARING TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE OF PERMITS ISSUED   #4 COMPARING POPULATION TO TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED   #5 COMPARING EMPLOYMENT TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED       MY BELIEF YOU LOOK AT THE TOTALITY OF THE INFORMATION TO GET A TRUE PICTURE, YOU DECIDE HOW YOU THINK WE ARE DOING RECOVERED, RECOVERING, OR EXCEEDING PAST PERFORMANCE       SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS SHOULD EQUAL 2006, SINGLE FAMILY PLUS DUPLEX... 12/02/2013

  Since our friends in Washington D.C. decided to shut down for a while. Employment numbers have not been published for a couple months for Montana. Always good to see what is happening with employment since more people working means,  in all likely hood, more homes will be sold. Although not a direct correlation employment is a good predictor, since it is impossible now to qualify for a loan without income.       October 2013 County Labor Force Statistics Non-Seasonally Adjusted Preliminary   Area Labor Force Employed Unemployed Rate           Montana 506,607 482,421 24,186 4.8 Cascade 40,192 38,533 1,659 4.1 Flathead 42,320 39,546 2,774 6.6 Gallatin 49,955 47,926 2,029 4.1 Lake 10,968 10,208 760 6.9 Lewis & Clark 34,663 33,342 1,321 3.8 Missoula 60,102 57,463 2,639 4.4 Musselshell 2,3... 11/24/2013

  October 31st 2013   “Market Qualifiers”   One  theme that I always carry with me about the real estate market or the economy in general is the qualifier to any analysis I do is “ unless our friends in Washington D.C. do something stupid all bets are off” we have now been through a period where I believe the comment applies in spades. So why are the actions or more appropriately inactions of our friends a concern here in paradise where we live? First when people get nervous or are unsure what is occurring they hesitate or hold back.   In single family permits we see the third year over year monthly decrease (permits down 16% from October 2012,  total single family permits still have a gain of 19% for the year, as a comparison in march 2013 permits were up 66% year over year. The increa... 11/05/2013

  You would assume if the price of something dropped that was desirable to purchase that sales of that product would increase. Then why in the housing market would number and percentage of the market drop in the lower price ranges if it cost about 18.5% less to buy today than it did in 2007?             1005 SIESTA DRIVE Price: $187,000 Beds: 4 Baths: 2 Sq Ft: 2134 A place to call home! There is plenty to please everyone in this great value! 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, open living room w/vaulted ceiling, large kitchen w/island has plenty of work & counter space, oven/range, refrigerator & freezer stay, fenced yard, d... View this property >>   10/19/2013

  Market update at glance   September 30th 2013   The last quarter shuffle   Three Quarters of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last Quarter of the year,   what behavior might we expect from the market place. Typically the market slows in the last quarter inventory normally shrinks and sales slow as we head into the holidays, usually the real noticeable shift comes in the second week of November just before thanks giving.                                                                                                            In single family permits we see the second year over year monthly decrease (permits down 28% from September 2012, yet total single family permits still up 24% for the year. The increase in residential unit sales is up 10% year over ye... 10/10/2013

HOUSING STRONG OR WEAK OR RELATIVE, A HARD LOOK AT HOUSING IN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY SOMETIMES WE FORGET THE PAST TO MAKE OURSELVES FEEL BETTER ABOUT THE PRESENT HOW MANY DIFFERENT MEASUREMENTS CAN YOU LOOK AT TO DETERMINE THE ANSWER TO THE QUESTION? FIRST YOU MIGHT LOOK AT INTEREST RATE PLOTTED AGAINST THE NUMBER OF SALES. ONE WOULD THINK AS THE COST TO OWN BECAME CHEAPER MORE BUYERS WOULD COME INTO THE MARKET PLACE. BUT DO THEY? INTEREST RATES SINCE 2000 DOWN 54.53% SALES UP SINCE 2000 2.26% THOSE NUMBERS I BELIEVE DO NOT MATCH   WELL MAYBE HOME OWNERSHIP WOULD RISE IF INTEREST RATE WENT DOWN. INTEREST RATES SINCE 2000 DOWN 54.53% HOME OWNERSHIP DOWN IN 2012 2.96% ………THOSE NUMBERS I BELIEVE DO NOT MATCH   WELL CERTAINLY IF YOU INCREASED THE POSSIBLE NUMBER OF HOME BUYERS, SALES WOULD INC... 09/22/2013

Bear Paw condo's  is a great new neighborhood in Billings Heights.   Just off Hilltop Rd. it is a nice quiet neighborhood with great access to downtown.  Map of Bear Paw Condo's Two brand new townhomes on Antelope Circle have been built by Classic Design Homes and are fully finished upstairs and down.   They have 3 bedrooms and 2 1/2 baths.  The upper level on both have a great open floor plan with the livng room, kitchen and dining area upstairs.  The master bedroom is also upstairs and has a nice master bath and walk in closet.  Downstairs are a spacious family room, 2 more bedrooms and a full bath.  For more details click here.     The kitchen comes with the oven/range, over the range microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator. Lots of storage and a nice deck off the kitchen for summert... 09/15/2013

Market update at glance August 31st 2013 Trends are they my friend? Two thirds of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last third of the year, what behavior might we expect from the market place. In single family permits we see the first year over year monthly decrease (permits down 21% from august 2012, yet total single family permits still up 33% for the year. The increase in residential unit sales is up 10% year over year, the decrease in market time is 21% year over year, the absorption rate shows an decrease of 2% year over year, the increase in pending sales is a positive 6% year over year, showing a more moderate increase. This showing the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year; this is a positive within the market. The reason for its po... 09/10/2013

SINCE 2000 THROUGH 2012 PLACEMENT OF MOBILE HOMES HAS DROPPED 81.14%, SO A NATURAL QUESTION IS  WHERE DID THOSE PERSON GO TO LIVE? Source:  These data are produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau from a  survey sponsored by the U.S. Department of                    Housing and Urban Development.     THEY MUST NOT BE BUYING NEW HOMES SINCE THE RATE OF NEW HOMES SALES HAS DROPPED 50% SINCE 2000. INTERESTING THOUGHT TO PONDER AND THE POPULATION HAS I... 09/09/2013

ONE WOULD THINK THAT AS YOU INCREASED THE POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN AREA, DEMAND FOR HOUSING SHOULD INCREASE, THE OTHER THOUGHT THAT COMES TO MIND IF YOU MADE HOUSING LESS EXPENSIVE TO PURCHASE IN RELATION TO INCOME, MORE BUYERS WOULD BE IN THE MARKET PLACE SO THE THOUGHT TO PONDER………………….. ARE THE ABOVE TWO THOUGHTS WRONG OR IS THERE SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON IN THE HOUSING MARKET?   08/23/2013

A broken record maybe, yet when I look at new construction nationally, I ask myself if I had lost  44 to 32% of my ability to walk from an accident, would I consider myself recovered, that’s how much construction is off from the 50 year average. I would venture not a stellar performance, this is most probably driven by the fact, in the prime home buying segment  25 to 54 year olds, nationally their employment is still 6 million fewer working than when we began this economic event.   actual total for year permit issued   start of construction     multi single   multi single     2013: Year to Date 564.5 371.2   537.0 367.4     2012: Year to Date 457.8 296.2   433.4 306.0     year over year + or  - 23.31% 25.32%   23.90% 20.07%         seasonally adjusted             permits issued       p... 08/18/2013

Cycle, cycle, cycle The Second half of the year has begun and the residential market in Billings enters its normal second half of the year behaviour. While we see year over year increases we see month to month decreases. The increase in in unit sales is up 10% year over year while the month over month saw a 6.5% decline, the decrease in market time is 22% year over year, the absorption rate shows an increase of 4% y o y  and an increase of 4% month over month, the increase in pending sales is a positive  9% y o y and a decrease of 15.45% month over month, showing the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is a positive  within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the increase in unit sales becomes a sustainable momentum and not a setup... 08/07/2013

Real-estate values are influenced by several factors, income growth population growth employment growth and interest rate. When looking at Yellowstone County and the current price movements and whether the appreciation is solid or sordid, looking at the underlying factors might lead to a conclusion First is income #1 since 2001 the median family is 34.67% higher  Yellowstone County is 51.44% higher   Second is employment #1 since 2001 the Number employed is 18.74% higher    Third is Population #1 since 2001 the population is 18.01% higher, which translates into a need for a total of 9,909 housing units, ownership and rentals     Fourth is Interest rate #1 since 2001 the Interest rate is 37.3% lower or stated another way the average sales priced home in 2001 was $124,111 you could pay $... 07/30/2013

Thought to ponder as we progress down the road,  in the second quarter of 2004 home ownership rate peaked at 69.2% dropping  to 65% in the first quarter of 2013. What opportunities and challenges does that present in the housing market . In May 2013 existing home sales were seasonally adjusted rate to be 5,180,000 the peak was 2005 at 7,076,000, so sales are still, nationally 26.79% off the peak. How does this affect your view of probably total sales nationwide as interest rates rise and what happens to rents? 07/18/2013

New numbers released this morning , what do the tea leaves say to you. Both from the peak and the 50 year averages still off by major/recession/depression depending on how you want to define, though impressive number bounce from the bottom no doubt, So the thought to ponder ………….. is if rates go back to 2006 which averaged 6.4% for a 30 year instead of todays 4.07% average for June which direction does the new home business  head       actual total for year permit issued   start of construction     multi single   multi single   2013: Year to Date 476.2 312.8   452.7 308.4   2012: Year to Date 385.0 249.1   364.2 256.6   year over year + or  - 23.69% 25.57%   24.30% 20.19%           seasonally adjusted             permits issued       permits issued total   one unit structure       inclu... 07/17/2013

Market update at glance June 30th 2013 The first half of the year is over and if it were a football game the residential market in Billings would be leading 21 to zero. The increase in in unit sales is up 9% year over year, the decrease in market time is 20% year over year, the absorption rate shows a decrease of 6% , the increase in pending sales is a positive  24%, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is a positive  within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the increase in unit sales becomes a sustainable momentum and not a setup for a bad stumble. The other positive from the market behaving in this manner is that the movement of prices up becomes a more solid base to build appreciation on. The market has experienced a 6.47% ... 07/11/2013

Market update at glance May 31th 2013 Encore, Encore is the usual audience response for an outstanding performance at the theater.  I believe as I review the performance of the market for the first five months of 2013 that should be our response to the behavior of the market so far. The increase in in unit sales is up 10% year over year, the decrease in market time is 18% year over year, the absorption rate shows a decrease of 17% , the increase in pending sales is a positive  17%, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is a positive  within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the increase in unit sales becomes a sustainable momentum and not a setup for a bad stumble. The other positive from the market behaving in this manner is t... 06/22/2013

High Sierra, A Neighborhood Tradition.   Kreitzberg Homes is currently building affordable, custom homes in the High Sierra subdivision.  Jeff Kreitzberg has been building homes in Billings since 1983.  A former Parade of Homes multiple winner, Jeff is committed to building quality homes at a price that is within your budget.   Located in the North/West area of Billings Heights, High Sierra is a place to call home.  The newly developed subdivision is well on its way to becoming the place to live.  It has a tranquil feel, with the wide open prairie to the north, yet is close to everything you need.         Location, location, location.   High Sierra Subdivision is just blocks away from Skyview High School, one mile away from Castle Rock Middle School, and two miles from Eagle Cliffs Elem... 05/08/2013

Market update at glance April 30th 2013 As I sit and review the performance of the market for the first four months of 2013, the increase in in unit sales is outstanding, the decrease in market time is phenomenal, the increase in pending sales is a positive trend, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is one of the most positive actions within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the increase in unit sales becomes a sustainable momentum and not a setup for a bad stumble. The other positive from the market behaving in this manner is that the movement of prices up becomes a more solid base to build appreciation on. The market has experienced a 6% approximate pricing movement year over year, as we get further into the year and both s... 05/05/2013

The thought to ponder……. Impressive bounce from the bottom, yet housing is still 30 to 41% off the 50 year averages, and 56 to 65% off from the peaks, really cause for celebration? That would put the dow in the 10,360 to 5,180 range who would be celebrating then?     actual total for year permit issued   start of construction     multi single   multi single 2013: Year to Date 205.1 133.4   210.1 135.1 2012: Year to Date 167.7 106.6   155.0 105.5 year over year + or  - 22.30% 25.14%   35.53% 28.06%           seasonally adjusted             permits issued       permits issued total   one unit structure       includes multi family permits issued   595     902                 peak year   1682     2219   permits % drop from peak   65%     59% 50 year average   911     1383   permits % drop f... 04/15/2013