I disagree about the normalcy of the current market. I am not sure that we can define normal anymore. We are not in a "balanced" market, if you call that normal.

I also disagree that we are in a bubble. A "bubble" is an artificial, unsustainable market. Our market is for real and is driven by low interest rates, low inventory, and strong buyer demand. Changes in these elements can change the market.

I do not believe we are in a bubble. We are in a market where demand is much higher than supply... that does not a bubble make. We'll be in a more normal market when there's more inventory that is closer to meeting buyer demand for it.

Hi, Peter.

       Please define "normal real estate market".

Not a predictor of future events Peter...oh wait, let me get Aunt Zelda's crystal ball! LOL

Your guess is as good as mine. 

I don't care what that dictionary says, we are not in a bubble. I thought a bubble was short & swift & it was over with. This has been like this for 2 years now I'm sure.

I saw it coming doing my market reports.  Nothing ever over 3 months of inventory.

I have no clue - 1.5 years ago I did not see what we are currently experiencing coming. I continue to watch the market stats closely for "trends" and indicators of when the market may be shifting.

There is always a 'bubble" going on in certain areas. Concentrate on your clients one at a time. Make your own market for your SOI.

Peter,

I have no idea, now is what is normal, and now will no doubt change as the nows continue...What we know is that we are not buying or selling now!  A

I don't see a "bubble".  There just is no inventory.  If there were a bubble, people would buy and sell the homes quickly to gain.  And that's not what's happening, at least here in Carmel and Pebble Beach.  People are buying to get away from the Bay area and into bigger homes for their families.  Every day on the MLS I see lots of homes coming on the market in San Francisco and other Bay Area cities.  Here on the Monterey Peninsula? Virtually none.  Pebble Beach, for example, usually had about 100 homes for sale; now it's down to 30, and 2/3 of them are $5M and up so out of reach of many buyers. Those that come on the market at the low end, go under contract fast.  How do I see the future? At this point in time, it will still depend on the pandemic. 

No bubble here - and in fact, I JUST wrote a post about that! LOL

I have no idea.  It seems that the Dallas market has been a seller's market for a very long time.  There was a short period near the end of 2018 when it was slower but then it went "crazy" again.  Then early 2020 when everything slowed for a short period but it quickly turned around again.  

No , scarcity will not subside for at least 2-3 years

I think that's going to depend on the number of REO properties that come to market after foreclosures begin again.

We are not in a bubble in CA.

It's not 2007, it's 2021.

Supply & Demand is a law, it's not a bubble.

There will be no "pop" only a slow deflation as the Fed adjusts rates for inflation in 2022 (estimated).

When 30-year fixed-rate loans do begin to rise, it will put downward pressure on demand for homes naturally and we'll see a shift...not a pop.

We had a builder panel in our office with a variety of builders speaking. The consensus was it will be 10 years before we get back to a stable (neutral buyer/seller) market. They think that is how far we are behind on housing.

As long as the government prints money and finds excuses to give it away, how can the bubble burst?

Don't see a threat to the bubble at this time.
However. the cost of everything from paper towels to printers, from inssurance to taxes on commercail real estate rent, from school taxes to unemployment insurance taxes. (from $7 per employee to $49 per month today and promising to be $80 in June).
And we have not considered that 10 TRILLION recently spent in deficent.
A huge economy shift from fossil fuels the fairy dust.
The wise may choose to hunder down till the dust settles.
Renting will be the only option for many.
I'm listing a modest house at $300 a square foot. That would normally be the Prom Queen in my area.
I'm certainly happy I'm not looking for a house.
The good news is those fixer-upper guys and remodlers are in every driveway. People have elected to stay put.

I think there is an echo.....

As for our market, think Denver's economy is very strong, and do not see a change in the near future.   

I think we are not in a Bubble butthat builders are cutting back because materials are so high right now.

If Biden, passes the new capital gain rate. Sellers are looking at their bottom line, they might choose to hold till we get a new president.

Real estate markets are ALWAYS local, hyperlocal AND CYCLICAL.

This is a very unique market, but rapid growth is never sustainable.

I'm more worried about the stock market than the RE market right now and many others are as well . . . 

Lots of variables. 

Supply and demand Peter Mohylsky. Broker Associate  when demand is high so are the prices Real Estate 101 learned that in Real Estate School 37 years ago 

When demand is low so are the prices