RECENT BLOG POSTS
Stocks were down for the fourth week in a row. But investors know that, unlike football, fourth down on Wall Street is not your last chance to hold onto the ball. The fumbling, however, continues with the economy. The good and not-so-good housing market news is covered above. Durable Goods Orders...
05/31/2011
Today we'll get May's Chicago PMI, reflecting the state of manufacturing in that area, expected to be down a little, though still well above 50, indicating growth. Wednesday's ISM Index measures manufacturing across the country and should also show a slower pace of growth, though growth nonethele...
05/31/2011
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Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...With Core PCE Prices still showing very mild inflation, the Fed can stay firm in its resolve to keep the Funds Rate at the super low 0%-0.25% level. Economists expect this to remain the case into 2012. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% pr...
05/31/2011
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Economic Calendar for the Week of May 30 - June 3 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuMay 31 09:45 Chicago PMI May 62.5 67.6 HIGH TuMay 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence May 66.3 65.4 Moderate WJun 1 10:00 ISM Index May 57.6 60.4 HIGH ThJun 2 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 5/28 413...
05/31/2011
People wonder if housing is moving in the right direction, especially after April Housing Starts fell 10.6% to an annual rate of 523,000 units. But a closer look reveals the decline was due mostly to multi-family units, which are volatile month to month and actually up 6.6% from a year ago. Also,...
05/23/2011
Bonds usually go in the opposite direction from stocks, but there were only modest gains in bond prices for the week. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended Friday up .02, closing at $100.06. As mortgage bond prices go up, mortgage rates go down. So no surprise that national average rates for conformi...
05/23/2011
The Dow and S&P 500 stock indexes both slid for the third week in a row, this time joined by the Nasdaq, which was flat last time around. Wall Street investors continue to worry over European government finances, with possible Greek debt restructuring and Spanish elections causing concern. On the...
05/23/2011
The minutes of the Fed's April meeting gave no indication the central bankers were ready to start tightening policy any time soon. So economists expect the 0%-0.25% rate to be with us into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the sa...
05/23/2011
Keep in mind that weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuMay 24 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 300K 300K Moderate WMay 25 08:30 D...
05/23/2011
Tomorrow (Tuesday) we get a read on home building in April. Housing Starts are expected to be up a tad and Building Permits down just a smidge, indicating no major drop in activity a few months out. Thursday's Existing Home Sales are also forecast up for April, staying above the 5 million annual ...
05/16/2011