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RECENT BLOG POSTS
On to this week. The big news to hit was that the Bank of England did over a $70bln bond purchase to provide liquidity to overleveraged pension funds. These funds were margin called and would have gone under if the BOE did not intervene. The bank said that they are prepared to do whatever is need...
10/03/2022
The Fed raised rates by 0.75% as the market expected. Last week’s action was similar to all weeks with a Fed decision. The days leading up to the decision were rough and then the market rallies on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. After all, he has to raise rates without spooking markets into a massi...
09/26/2022
This is a longer edition as we first dive deeper into the way the markets bet on the Fed’s move (and how we can know what the “smart” money is thinking) and then revisit bits of my long term thesis. It may be a bit more technical, so please reach out if you have any questions whatsoever. Interest...
09/21/2022
We have a huge week ahead of us as we get CPI numbers on Tuesday. I say huge because a lot of the Fed’s rate hike decision will rely on this report. If it shows a good decrease, I can see the fed raising it 50bps this month while talking hawkishly. If not, 75bp minimum is on the table. Fed’s next...
09/12/2022
Unemployment numbers came in Friday showing the unemployment rate rising to 3.7%. Remember, the jobs report is the main economic component that the Fed is holding onto to prove to everyone we are not in a recession – even though up until only recently (oddly enough), 2 back to back quarters of GD...
09/06/2022
Fed Chairman Powell spoke on Friday in a very hawkish tone. He essentially told markets that he will continue to raise rates to battle inflation. He also said that this policy may hurt households and the overall labor market. Fair enough. We knew this. We’ve been talking about it all year. We kno...
08/29/2022
The Fed meets this week for their annual trip to Jackson Hole. All eyes/ears will be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. If there was a time to announce a shift in policy, or the real state of the economy and how they plan to proceed with policy, this is the stage for it. Nothing ha...
08/22/2022
I talk to a lot of industry professionals that think rising interest rates and a softer RE market will lead to foreclosures and more inventory.I think it is the opposite and as you can see by the chart from the Mortgage Bankers Association above delinquency rates are at an all-time low.The second...
08/16/2022
 Last week’s CPI report came in lower on a year-over-year basis at 8.5% (vs 9.1% the month before). The month-over-month increase was at 0%. I had a feeling this report would come lower than expectations and am hopeful that it will be the start of a trend. A September rate hike will still occur, ...
08/15/2022
Last Friday’s unemployment report came in much stronger than expected (although I think part-time jobs had a big effect). It more than doubled expectations! Those wishing for lower rates were stung by this data as it provides gunpowder for the Fed to increase them. It will also help support the a...
08/08/2022
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